Financial crisis and people-protest

The cycle of work and personal reward keeps people busy and well-behaved. If you have a job, it keeps you out of mischief. If your job is gone, you have more time on your hands. Time to question and argue. Time to challenge the status quo. With less reason to keep your mouth shut. As more people lose their livelihood, recession is likely to involve more protest.

Even in China, employment is becoming more of an issue. China's growth has been helped by huge exports to other countries - countries which are not now buying goods at the same level. As demand evens off or falls, growth in the cities dwindles. The Financial Times today suggests that China may now face up to 27m newly jobless people returning to the countryside. They are returning to an agricultural sector already shocked by downward pressure on prices and production. This year, 6.5m graduates will leave China's higher educational system: those who cannot find jobs could become a voice of unrest. The government may already be seeking strategies to manage potential protests. Of course in China, the power of government, and restrictions on press freedom, may dampen down protest, at least in the short term.

But in other places, recessionary pressure is already seeing an increase in protests and their reporting. People alienated from the economy have less to lose in protesting against perceived unfairness; journalists in a threatened economy will spin copy from sensationalising perceived injustice. In the UK, at the oil company Total, workers are feeling threatened by contracts which involve the use of overseas labour. This story has been given significant airtime by journalists, many of whom are pushing it towards a people-versus-government issue.

If unemployment continues to rise in many economies, we can expect more protest, more unrest. Governments - particularly those with greater press freedom - will be working overtime to make sure they themselves are not put out of a job.